Seth Godin has been writing about polls and surveys recently, and he’s got me thinking. I shot these questions to him in an e-mail, but I’m going to post them here for your pondering pleasure:
- Since all American citizens are not required to vote, are our elections really that much different from web polling (where the passionate have a disproportionate turnout)?
- Along those lines, would you say it’s good for elections to be decided by the more passionate (ie. the apathetic would make the results unreliable), or bad (ie., fewer voters means a decreased likelihood that the “right” candidate is elected to represent the people)?
- If you think this aspect of the electoral process is bad, then do you have ideas to improve the system?
- If, however, you think it’s good, then why are “gimmicky polls” not to be trusted?
I’ll share my own thoughts later, but I’d like to hear what you think, too.
Anybody checked out The Numbers, a recent post by Gary Langer (Director of Polling, ABC News)? He basically discredited the results of one of his own ABC polls where Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich wound up light-years ahead of the other Presidential candidates.
My personal take on polls like this is that the sorts of web enthusiasts who gravitate toward the open-source community tend to feel like Paul “gets” them more than the other Republican candidates. Those types of people are also far more likely than the average American to do their own “independent investigation” of Presidential candidates, instead of relying solely on traditional sources like newspapers, radio or television network news.
News outlets such as ABC News really do a disservice to this country’s citizens when they focus more on a candidate’s perceived chances of winning than on that candidate’s political beliefs and philosophies. This shouldn’t be a popularity contest–we’re talking about electing the nation’s President, not a high school Class President!
So here’s my suggestion to Mr. Langer: instead of these “who do you think won last night’s debate” sorts of polls, do some research and compile a list of 10-12 congressional votes, public statements or other applicable insights into each candidate’s mind, and begin a series of polls focusing on them. Inform your audience, and then poll your audience on how they feel about the information you provided.
See, then you’d be seen as responsible and mature, and you probably wouldn’t feel the urge to quote 12-year-olds in your defense.
